The Celtics are heavy favorites to win the NBA Finals.
One of the strongest in recent memory.
The most common projections have Boston beating Dallas in five or six games. But if recent Celtics history, and the star power of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have taught us anything, it’s that these Finals are destined to be a long, tight series.
Amid all the drama and scrutiny, here’s how Boston can pull out Banner 18:
1. Feed Porzingis
The Celtics’ clearest matchup advantage lies with the murky status of Kristaps Porzingis.
Porzingis is expected to play in these Finals, but it’s unclear exactly when or how many minutes he will be allowed to play coming off a calf strain. Whenever the 7-footer hits the floor, the Celtics should waste no time finding him. He can post up or shoot over every Mavericks rotation regular, and threaten Dallas with pick-and-pop 3s like no opposing center has yet these playoffs.
He is the solution to the Mavericks’ first-rate rim protection, and any switching defense Dallas might opt for against the Celtics’ star wings.
Porzingis went 4-of-8 on 3-pointers in their last matchup, a Boston rout on March 1 that started with him canning multiple 3s in the first quarter. Much has changed since then, including a Mavericks team that quickly coalesced into a legit championship contender. But the mismatch Porzingis presents remains, and the Celtics should exploit it whenever they can.
2. Attack Doncic on defense
A tactic as old as time: forcing the opponent’s best offensive player to work overtime on defense.
Fatigue them, mentally and physically. Force them to chase, think and defend. One possession after another after another.
Doncic, at 6-foot-7 and 230 pounds, is no stranger to this plan. He’s also held his own in the playoffs defensively, despite dealing with various minor injuries. The Celtics are not armed with the type of player best-equipped to beat him — lightning-quick ball-handlers who can shoot — but they can force Doncic to switch onto Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown or chase Derrick White around screens.
The more movement, the better.
3. Sell out against Kyrie
Boston should probably brace for a Doncic avalanche on offense. It’s coming.
Doncic might even win a game or two on his own. The 25-year-old star is that good, and the proof is in these playoffs, when he knocked off three of the West’s top four seeds, all 50-win teams. Kyrie Irving, on the other hand, is a different story.
Oklahoma City successfully harassed the 32-year-old with athletic primary defenders, encroaching double teams and lots of defensive attention. Irving averaged fewer than 15 points per game entering the Mavs’ clinching Game 6 win in that series and nearly seven assists. Irving yielded the ball to lesser teammates (P.J. Washington, Derrick Jones Jr. and Josh Green, to name a few), who punished OKC on open 3-point looks.
It was a pick-your-poison proposition the Thunder handled wisely. With extra pressure on Doncic and Irving, Dallas posted a 112 offensive rating in that series, a rating that would have ranked bottom-10 over the regular season. The pitfall OKC found — missing its own 3-pointers — is an area Boston should avoid, as the second-best shooting team in the league by effective field goal percentage.
Though, there is a balance here. Blitzing Irving cannot lead to Doncic playing 4-on-3 behind that initial pressure. He will kill the Celtics. Boston should pressure Irving with the intent of guiding the ball to the Mavericks’ wings and centers as best it can, the least dangerous place it could be with two stars on the floor.
Not to mention, during the regular season, Dallas went just 6-5 in games Irving played at least 15 minutes and scored fewer than 20 points.
4. Keep an eye on transition
The Celtics’ transition defense has been excellent all season, with two notable Game 2 exceptions: in the first round versus Miami and second round against Cleveland.
They lost both of those nights, a function of inconsistent defensive focus and preposterously hot opponent shooting. Dallas may step into similar shooting luck one night against Boston, but the Celtics can’t give up anything easy.
The Mavericks will run selectively, often with Doncic or Irving hitting hit-ahead passes before the defense knows what has happened. Dallas is adding 3.4 points per 100 possessions off fast breaks in the playoffs, fourth-highest in the postseason per Cleaning the Glass, while the Celtics are at 0.1. Those three to four points could be the difference in any game this series, especially if Boston is slow to get back on multiple possessions.
5. Play with purpose
The Celtics have come too far to let go of the rope now.
They cannot suffer from their own aimlessness against Luka and Co. The Mavericks will punish them for a lack of focus, lazing into stepback 3s and allowing easy baskets. They don’t boast the same firepower or depth, but they know who they are and how they want to win.
Knowing their talent advantage pads their margin for error, the Celtics have known to play with their food. But now it’s time to eat.
Because if the Celtics match the Mavs’ purpose and deliberately attack their weaknesses — allowing corner 3s and lack of playmaking outside of Doncic and Irving — long enough, it should pay off in a title.
